People ask me regularly whether the Toowoomba market has peaked, whether they've missed the run, and whether now is still a reasonable time to buy. These are fair questions, and they deserve straight answers — not marketing, not hype.
What follows is my read on the market as it stands right now, grounded in the data I look at and what I'm experiencing on the ground. I'll be direct about what's going up, what's not, and where I think things are headed.
The headline numbers
The Toowoomba median house price has risen approximately 66% since 2021, and around 84% over the past decade. Rents have climbed roughly 64% over ten years and 9.1% in the most recent twelve months. These are not speculative numbers — they're supported by population growth (the Toowoomba region recorded 1.67% growth in 2023–24), low unemployment (sitting around 4.1%), and an infrastructure pipeline that continues to support economic activity in the region.
The vacancy rate is worth pausing on. At 0.5%, Toowoomba's rental market is as tight as any I've seen. REIA classifies anything below 2.5% as a landlord's market. We're sitting at a fifth of that threshold. What it means in practice: quality properties rent quickly, properties stay tenanted, and tenant competition means upward pressure on rents has been sustained — not just a 2021–22 spike.
Have prices peaked? An honest answer.
I can't tell you whether prices will be 5% higher or 5% lower in eighteen months. Nobody can. What I can tell you is that the conditions that drive sustained price growth are still present in Toowoomba: population is growing, supply is constrained (particularly for established properties in well-regarded suburbs), and rental demand is very strong. There is no obvious demand-side shock on the horizon that would reverse this.
What has changed is the rate of growth. The 15–20% annual growth we saw in 2021–22 was exceptional and not sustainable. The current 11–12% year-on-year is still strong. What I expect going forward is a normalisation to something in the 5–8% range — which is healthy, sustainable, and still well ahead of inflation. If you're a long-term investor looking at a 7–10 year hold, the entry timing is a relatively minor factor versus suburb and property selection.
"At 0.5% vacancy, we're sitting at a fifth of the threshold REIA classifies as a landlord's market. Quality properties here don't sit empty."
Where I'd be more cautious is on days on market. The median is 15–33 days depending on the suburb and property type, but the best-quality properties in well-located suburbs are selling faster than that — sometimes under two weeks. The market rewards decisiveness. Buyers who wait to "see what happens" are consistently losing properties to buyers who move with confidence once they've done their due diligence.
The infrastructure story
Infrastructure is a significant reason I'm bullish on Toowoomba over a ten-year horizon. It's not about one project — it's the accumulation of investment that's occurred and that continues.
The combined effect of this infrastructure investment is an economy that's more diversified, more connected, and more capable of absorbing population growth than it was five years ago. That's the structural backdrop against which Toowoomba property prices have been moving, and it doesn't disappear overnight.
What the rental market looks like right now
For investors, the rental story deserves its own section. Rents across Toowoomba rose 9.1% in the most recent twelve-month period, and that's on top of significant growth in the years before. The underlying cause is simple: supply hasn't kept up with population growth.
The vacancy rate tells you that more directly than any other statistic. At 0.5%, we're in rental market conditions where quality properties don't sit empty. I have clients who have purchased investment properties in Toowoomba and had tenants in place within a week of settlement — not because the property was exceptional, but because the market is that tight.
Rents have climbed approximately 64% over the decade. That's not a number you typically see in a market experiencing affordability stress or population decline. It's the result of sustained demand exceeding supply, in a city where new supply has struggled to keep pace.
What it means for buyers entering now
The market is competitive but not irrational. Properties are priced on fundamentals rather than fear-of-missing-out speculation, which means quality properties sell quickly and at fair prices rather than wildly over asking.
What it means in practice for buyers:
- Have your finance pre-approved and confirmed before searching actively — competitive properties require the ability to move quickly
- Understand that a 15–25 day decision window is realistic; don't expect months to deliberate on a good property
- Focus on established, well-located suburbs rather than chasing the cheapest entry point in a new estate — the land scarcity dynamic works differently in both
- Engage a buyer's agent who is physically present in the market and can inspect, assess and advise in real time — especially if you're not local
The honest version: if you're looking for a time when Toowoomba property is cheap and there's no competition, that time was 2019. The market has fundamentally re-rated. But re-rating doesn't mean it's too late — it means the conditions that drove the re-rating are now embedded in the market, and what you're buying into is a structurally stronger market than the one that existed five years ago.
I can give you a straight read on what's available, what's good value, and what I'd be approaching differently. A 20-minute conversation is enough to know whether it makes sense for you — and I won't waste your time if it doesn't.
Talk to me